Panel Cycle Reversal: TCL Shows More Elasticity Than BOE

The most valuable information in this article is: TCL Technology's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2026 surged 96%-108% year-over-year, reaching 3.7-3.92 billion RMB, demonstrating performance elasticity far exceeding peers amid the overall recovery of the panel industry.

For comparison, BOE's estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 2.5-3.0 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of approximately 60%-70%. Both are panel giants, yet TCL's growth rate is nearly 40 percentage points higher. Behind this lie differences in product structure, capacity layout, and cost control capabilities between the two companies.

I. Product Structure Comparison: Cycle Gaming Between Large and Small/Medium Sizes

TCL (CSOT)'s core advantage lies in large-size panels—TV panels account for over 60% of its revenue, primarily ultra-large sizes above 55 inches. In the first half of 2026, TV panel prices experienced a strong rebound, especially for large products like 65-inch and 75-inch, with increases reaching 15%-20%. While BOE is also a main player in large sizes, its share of small/medium-size panels (phones, laptops, automotive) is higher, around 40%, where price recoveries were relatively mild, averaging only 8%-10%.

Dimension	TCL (CSOT)	BOE
Large Panel Share	>60%	~40%
Large Panel Price Increase (2026H1)	15%-20%	12%-15%
Small/Medium Size Share	<30%	~40%
Small/Medium Size Price Increase	5%-8%	8%-10%
Estimated Net Profit Growth	96%-108%	60%-70%

The price elasticity of large panels directly amplified TCL's profit leverage. Taking CSOT's t9 line at full capacity as an example, a 10% increase in the selling price per square meter of large panels corresponds to a marginal net profit contribution of 800 million - 1 billion RMB.

II. Capacity and Cost Control: The Dividend of TCL's "Counter-Cyclical Investment"

During the industry downturn in 2024-2025, TCL counter-cyclically pushed forward the full production of the t9 line (Guangzhou Gen 8.6) and the capacity ramp-up of the t5 line (Wuhan Gen 6 LTPS). These two lines basically achieved full production and sales in the first half of 2026, with monthly capacity contributions exceeding 150,000 square meters, and yields stable above 95%. This means TCL had more ample capacity elasticity during the industry recovery, while BOE's new capacity during the same period (such as B12) was still in the ramp-up phase, facing greater cost amortization pressure.

• TCL's Q1 2026 large panel shipments increased by 18% YoY, while BOE's grew by 12%.
• TCL's unit area production cost decreased by 6% YoY (benefiting from economies of scale in raw material procurement and reduced depreciation pressure).
• BOE's unit area production cost decreased by 3% (dragged down by new line depreciation).

III. Divergence in Photovoltaic Business

TCL Technology also owns TCL Zhonghuan (New Energy Photovoltaics), which did not show obvious improvement in the first half of 2026. Silicon wafer prices remained volatile at low levels, and TCL Zhonghuan is expected to lose 500-800 million RMB. However, TCL's overall performance still achieved a surge of 96%-108%, indicating that the strong growth in the panel business completely covered the photovoltaic losses and had surplus capacity. Conversely, BOE, with pure panel business and no photovoltaic drag, had a lower growth rate, further confirming that TCL's panel business profitability elasticity far exceeds peers.

IV. Core Judgment: The "Magnifying Glass Effect" of the Panel Cycle

TCL's performance surge this round is essentially the magnifying glass effect of the panel cycle reversal—when the industry exits the trough, companies with high large-size shares, new capacity releases, and strong cost control see their profit elasticity amplified geometrically. While BOE is larger in scale, its product structure is more dispersed and lacks capacity elasticity, resulting in relatively moderate growth.

Summary in one sentence: TCL's panel cycle elasticity is essentially a double lever of large-size price hikes and capacity expansion, whereas BOE is more like a steady industry index, while TCL is an amplified Beta.

[!note] Data Sources: IT Home, semi-annual performance forecasts of respective companies, panel price tracking data from industry research firms Omdia and DSCC.

Original Link: https://www.ithome.com/0/976/187.htm