Behind Zhipu AI's Trillion-Yuan Valuation: Tech Moat May Be Weaker Than It Seems

ARR of 1.7 billion yuan, a 60x increase over the past year, stock price didn't crash during the first lock-up expiration in July, and GLM-5.2's benchmarks are neck-and-neck with Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5. These numbers would be impressive for any Chinese AI company; Zhipu seems to be replicating MiniMax's upward trajectory from back then. But the problem lies exactly there—MiniMax was also a capital darling in 2023, only to fall into silence due to chaotic commercialization pacing and wavering technical routes. Zhipu fears becoming the next MiniMax, and this fear isn't without basis.