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Unitree Robotics vs Figure AI: In-depth Research Investment Report on the Twin Titans of Humanoid Robots (Q2 2026)

From Ming Ge Value Investing's Xueqiu Column

Core Conclusions at a Glance

• Unitree Robotics: Hardware-first + mass-production king. Quadruped robots hold nearly 70% global market share. Humanoid robot shipments reached 5,500 units in 2025, with revenue of 1.708 billion yuan (+335% YoY), gross margin of 60%, and valuation around 12 billion yuan. Suitable for value investors seeking certainty and cash flow.
• Figure AI: AI-driven + universal vision. Valuation reached $39 billion within 3 years of founding. Series C financing exceeded $1 billion. Focuses on dual-robot collaboration and end-to-end AI control. Suitable for risk investors seeking high growth and disruption.
• Industry Inflection Point: 2026 is the inaugural year of mass production. Global shipments are expected to exceed 50,000 units (+700% YoY), with a market size surpassing $6 billion. The core investment logic is "hardware cost reduction + AI dimension upgrade + scenario implementation."
• Investment Strategy: Balanced allocation—Unitree provides stable cash flow and valuation safety cushion, while Figure captures disruptive growth opportunities driven by AI.

I. Company Core Profiles and Key Data

1. Unitree Robotics

• Founding Date: August 2016, Founder Wang Xingxing (PhD in Robotics from Zhejiang University)
• Core Positioning: Leading global legged robot manufacturer, full-stack self-research + mass-production oriented
• Technical Barriers: Full industrial chain self-research (motors, reducers, controllers, LiDAR, perception/motion algorithms), cumulative patents over 180
• Core Products:
• Quadruped Robots: Go1/Laikago series, cumulative sales over 30,000 units, 68% global market share
• Humanoid Robots: H1/G1 series, 5,500 units shipped in 2025, ranking first globally
• Dexterous Hands: 6-axis robotic arms, gripping precision reaches 0.1mm
• Financial Performance: 2025 revenue 1.708 billion yuan, gross margin 60%, net margin 15%, positive cash flow
• Financing & Valuation: Series B financing hundreds of millions, Meituan holds 8% as the largest external shareholder, end-of-2025 valuation approx. 12 billion yuan

2. Figure AI

• Founding Date: January 2022, Founder Brett Adcock (Founder of Archer Aviation)
• Core Positioning: Universal humanoid robot R&D firm, AI-driven + end-to-end control
• Technical Barriers: Helix VLA model (Vision-Language-Action neural network), supports dual-robot collaboration, reduces dependence on external AI
• Core Products:
• Figure 02: 35 degrees of freedom, humanoid wrist/hand/fingers, load capacity 20kg, battery life 4 hours
• Helix: Upgraded version, supports simultaneous control of two robots, AI interaction capability improved by 3 times
• Financial Performance: 2025 revenue <100 million yuan (mainly R&D and testing), no profit, high dependency on financing
• Financing & Valuation: Series C financing $1 billion (September 2025), post-money valuation $39 billion, led by NVIDIA, Intel, etc.

II. Core Difference Comparative Analysis

Comparison Dimension	Unitree Robotics	Figure AI	Investment Implication
Technical Route	Hardware priority, motion control as core, full-stack self-research for cost reduction and efficiency improvement	AI priority, end-to-end model as core, emphasizing universal intelligence	Unitree focuses on "execution," Figure on "thinking," technologies are complementary
Commercialization Path	Quadrupeds first then humanoids, from scientific research/education → industrial inspection → consumer companionship	Directly humanoid, focusing on logistics warehousing → retail services → home companionship	Unitree has high certainty, Figure has large growth space
Mass Production Capability	5,500 humanoid units shipped in 2025, 30,000 quadrupeds cumulative, annual capacity 100,000 units	Small batch production in Q1 2026, target annual capacity 50,000 units	Unitree has verified scalability, Figure is in capacity ramp-up phase
Valuation Level	12 billion yuan (PS≈7x), reasonable valuation	$39 billion (PS>1000x), high valuation premium	Unitree has high safety margin, Figure has high risk-reward ratio
Core Advantages	Cost control (self-research reduces cost by 30-50%), motion stability, mass production capability	AI algorithms, dual-robot collaboration, brand influence, capital support	Unitree suitable for steady allocation, Figure suitable for venture capital
Target Market	Global scientific research + industrial + consumer, mid-low price range (H1 approx. 100,000 yuan)	North American high-end industrial + service, high price range (02 approx. $500,000)	Unitree has broad coverage, Figure has high average order value

III. Investment Logic and Value Assessment

1. Unitree Robotics: Deterministic Growth Hardware Leader

• Core Logic:

1. Mass Production Barrier: The only company globally achieving full industrial chain self-research for robots, with significant cost advantages. Humanoid robot prices dropping to 100,000 yuan opens up the consumer market.

2. Cash Flow Support: Quadruped robot annual revenue exceeds 1 billion yuan, gross margin 65%, providing stable funds for humanoid robot R&D.

3. Scenario Verification: 1,000 Go1 cluster performance at Beijing Winter Olympics, over 500 industrial inspection cases, scientific research clients covering 80% of universities globally.

4. IPO Expectation: Plans to list on the STAR Market in 2026, raising 4.2 billion yuan, with 2 billion yuan invested in intelligent robot model R&D.

• Quantitative Forecast for 2026-2028:
• Revenue: 2026 4.5 billion yuan (+163%), 2027 10 billion yuan (+122%), 2028 20 billion yuan (+100%)
• Net Profit: 2026 680 million yuan (net margin 15%), 2027 1.8 billion yuan (net margin 18%), 2028 4 billion yuan (net margin 20%)
• Valuation: Post-IPO target market cap 60 billion yuan (2026, PE≈88x), 2028 target market cap 150 billion yuan (PE≈37.5x)

2. Figure AI: Disruptive Innovation AI Unicorn

• Core Logic:

1. AI Barrier: Helix VLA model achieves "see-understand-act" end-to-end control, improving dual-robot collaboration efficiency by 50%, a key breakthrough for universal humanoid robots.

2. Capital Backing: $39 billion valuation attracts top global resources. Cooperates with NVIDIA to develop dedicated AI chips, with Intel providing process support.

3. Scenario Focus: Collaborates with Walmart and Amazon for logistics warehousing tests. One robot replaces 3 workers, payback period <1 year.

4. Technical Iteration: Launching Helix 2.0 in 2026, improving AI inference speed by 10 times and reducing cost by 40%, accelerating commercialization.

• Quantitative Forecast for 2026-2028:
• Revenue: 2026 $500 million (small batch delivery), 2027 $3 billion (+500%), 2028 $10 billion (+233%)
• Net Profit: 2026 -$2 billion (heavy R&D investment), 2027 -$500 million (scale effects emerging), 2028 $1.5 billion (first profit)
• Valuation: 2028 target market cap $150 billion (PE≈100x), growth potential of 3.8 times

IV. Industry Prospects and Risk Warnings

1. Industry Explosion Inflection Point Has Arrived

• Market Size: Global humanoid robot market was $4.89 billion in 2025, expected to reach $6.24 billion in 2026, and $165.13 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 50.6%.
• Policy Dividend: China's "14th Five-Year Plan" lists humanoid robots as a strategic industry; US "CHIPS and Science Act" provides $20 billion in subsidies.
• Technical Breakthrough: Motor costs dropped 70% in 3 years; AI large models improved robot learning efficiency by 100 times; commercialization critical point has been reached.

2. Core Risk Comparison

Risk Type	Unitree Robotics	Figure AI
Technical Risk	Relatively weak AI capabilities, lagging development of universal intelligence	Insufficient hardware stability, mass production yield yet to be verified
Market Risk	Uncertain acceptance of consumer market, price war pressure	Fierce competition in high-end market (Tesla Optimus), slow client expansion
Financial Risk	IPO fundraising below expectations, insufficient R&D investment	Continuous losses, high financing dependency, valuation bubble risk
Competitive Risk	Domestic manufacturers like Agibot and UBTECH catching up	Giants like Boston Dynamics and Tesla entering the game

V. Investment Recommendations and Outlook

1. Investment Strategy

• Conservative Investors: Prioritize allocating to Unitree Robotics, capturing hardware mass production dividends, enjoying deterministic growth and cash flow returns. Target return rate 50-100% (2026-2027).
• Aggressive Investors: Allocate to Figure AI, betting on the disruptive opportunity of universal humanoid robots, enduring short-term losses and high volatility. Target return rate 300-500% (2027-2028).
• Balanced Investors: Adopt a 7:3 ratio allocation between Unitree and Figure, balancing certainty and growth, smoothing portfolio volatility. Target return rate 100-200% (2026-2028).

2. Key Observation Indicators

• Unitree Robotics: Monthly shipment volume of humanoid robots (target 1,000 units), changes in gross margin (maintaining 60%+), progress in AI model R&D (landing time of VLA model).
• Figure AI: Mass production yield (target 90%+), number of signed clients (order scale from Walmart/Amazon), iteration speed of Helix model (inference latency <100ms).

3. Future Outlook

The humanoid robot industry is moving from "lab" to "production line," welcoming the inaugural year of scaled mass production in 2026. Unitree Robotics, leveraging hardware and mass production advantages, is poised to become the "Xiaomi of the robotics world"; Figure AI, relying on AI and capital advantages, may become the "OpenAI of the humanoid robot field." Both represent two core paths of humanoid robot development, eventually meeting at the fusion point of "Hardware + AI," jointly driving the arrival of the embodied intelligence era.

Report Data Sources:

1. Unitree Robotics Prospectus (March 2026)

2. Figure AI Series C Financing Announcement (September 2025)

3. Fortune Business Insights Humanoid Robot Market Report (April 2026)

4. Omdia Global Humanoid Robot Shipment Statistics (March 2026)

5. Company Official Websites and Public Interview Materials (As of May 15, 2026)