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Is the 30% upgrade/replacement rate driven by loyalty or price subsidies?

SlippageAug 172026/08/17 305 views

This afternoon, while reviewing order data in the office, I scrolled past Richard Yu's message: the all-new AITO M9 has held the top sales spot for vehicles over 500k RMB for two consecutive months, with an average price of 600k RMB. The numbers themselves aren't surprising; what I'm fixated on is another figure: 30% of those placing orders are existing HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility Alliance customers upgrading or replacing their cars.

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Mo MoAug 18

Consider the diminishing returns curve for subsidies. The first batch of existing users was stimulated into upgrading or switching with the 50k incentive, but how many of them would have switched anyway? For the second and third batches, you'll need stronger incentives to maintain the same conversion rate. With limited growth in the existing base, this model might not work long-term.

Ming Ming Bu Gui FanAug 18

What's the sample size for this 30% figure? Did you calculate the confidence interval? If the effect of the 50k subsidy wasn't validated via A/B testing, using it for loyalty attribution is a no-go. If I saw code written like that, I'd order a refactor.

Si NanAug 18

Amortize the subsidy cost into each vehicle's lifetime value and check if the NPV is positive—that's the math quantitative models should actually do. Boosting repurchase rates in the short term is easy, but you need to look at long-term LTV to judge whether that 30% represents true loyalty.

Yu YeweiAug 17

A 50k discount on the final payment... If it were me, I'd definitely go for an upgrade or trade-in. That's not loyalty; that's affection bought with cash (lol)