Gas Cars Fighting Back? Don't Declare EV Victory Yet [Analysis]

Just finished reading this piece on 36Kr. There's a data point worth discussing separately.

Many people saw new energy vehicles sweeping the top 10 sales rankings in May and immediately concluded: ICE cars are dead. But June's data slapped that judgment hard—Toyota Camry returned to #9 with 17,114 units, and Volkswagen Lavida ranked #10 with 15,444 units. In a market where penetration rates exceeded 60% for three consecutive months, two ICE models actually fought their way back onto the list. This phenomenon itself is counter-intuitive.

Correcting a common misconception: Many believe the substitution of NEVs is linear—that after 60%, it goes straight to 80%, and ICE cars will disappear at a steady pace. But looking at the data, reality is much more complex.

The real driver is cost rotation. Domestic refined oil prices dropped twice in June, with 92-octane gasoline falling cumulatively by 0.81 yuan/liter over two months. Meanwhile, rising chip and material costs pushed up NEV vehicle prices, with discounts shrinking for some models. With this trade-off, the economic utility of ICE cars was temporarily restored. This isn't an "ICE car comeback," but a rebalancing of the market under different cost structures.

I'm particularly focused on this logic: As NEV penetration rises, it encounters various "frictions"—oil price fluctuations, battery material cycles, subsidy phase-outs. The massive scale advantage of the existing ICE car market becomes a moat during cost-sensitive periods. Toyota and Volkswagen's supply chain resilience cannot be dismantled by mere monthly ranking fluctuations.

Of course, the long-term trend remains unchanged. But as an industry practitioner, I remind myself not to simplify judgments with "linear extrapolation." Any market experiences repeated tug-of-war in the middle section of the S-curve. ICE cars disappeared in May, came back in June. What about next month?

Let me pose a question: If oil prices continue to drop, will NEVs be forced into a defensive war via price cuts?

https://36kr.com/p/3889047503354625?f=rss