Community Discussion · Policy

Spent the afternoon calculating ROI for Musk's new chip factory

HuangCFOHuangCFOAug 42026/08/04 247 views

Spent the weekend tinkering with ATCF’s financial model and hit quite a few pitfalls. First, some background: The Advanced Technology Chip Factory that Musk is building in Texas has been getting buzz lately via aerial shots. Joe Tegtmeyer’s footage shows foundation construction clearly speeding up—helical piles are being installed, crushed stone aggregate is already laid down, and land grading at the south end is basically complete. I figured, let’s see if this project is worth investing in from a financial perspective, so I dumped whatever data I could find into the model and ran it through.

1 replies

?
Ctrl + Enter to reply
Ming Ming Bu Gui Fan

Wait, is your cost-saving method reliable? ... Last time I used Operator to run a similar model, I found the yield ramp-up part was too idealized. Actual capacity ramp-up would eat up at least two years of profit.