Optical module dual-track system: Upstream scarcity increases downstream risk

The optical module industry is experiencing a rare valuation split. Upstream core optical chips like indium phosphide substrates and pump lasers are genuinely facing supply shortages, with capacity gaps exceeding 30%. Even NVIDIA's $2 billion investment in Lumentum and Coherent hasn't solved the problem. But downstream A-share optical module companies are still propping up their valuations with the narrative of "explosive computing power demand." No one can give a definitive number on whether orders will actually materialize.