Lei Jun said pre-orders open tonight at 9 PM; I did the math from the audience

At the launch event, Lei Jun stood on stage, and the big screen displayed "N90/N70 officially launching in September, pre-orders opening tonight at 21:00, intention deposit 1,000 RMB." An analyst friend sitting next to me nudged me: "Hey, how does your finance department view this 1,000 yuan?"

I smiled and didn't answer. To be honest, a CFO's brain had already started crunching numbers at that moment.

Let's do the simplest calculation first: the intention deposit is 1,000 RMB, refundable. Only upon locking the order does production priority begin, and picking up the car gets you a table board worth 999 RMB. This 1,000 RMB is essentially not a deposit, but an "earnest money"—money that can be listed under "other payables" financially. For Xiaomi Pengcheng, this new brand, this number is chosen precisely. Too high, and users hesitate; too low, and there's no filtering effect. 1,000 RMB hits the threshold of "making you feel the cost of giving up is slightly high, but not painful enough."

From a financial perspective, this move is clever in three ways:

First, stress-testing product popularity via cash flow. A 1,000 RMB intention deposit, assuming 100,000 people pay, equals 100 million RMB in cash inflow. This 100 million won't be touched in the short term because it's refundable. But the question is, how many actually refund? Empirical data tells me the churn rate between paying the intention deposit and formally locking the order is roughly 30%-50%. That means even if 50,000 people ultimately don't buy, Xiaomi Pengcheng gets to occupy 100 million in funds for free for several months. Even if deposited in a bank savings account, the interest is hundreds of thousands. More importantly, it lets management know the demand curve early—if the conversion rate of intention deposits is low, there's still room to adjust pricing and configurations before the September launch.

Second, signaling to the capital markets. Before tonight, external views on the pricing, configuration, and pre-order volume of the Pengcheng N90/N70 were all guesses. Now, with this 1,000 RMB threshold, tomorrow morning's press release can say "Pre-orders exceeded X ten-thousands in X hours." This number will be compared with contemporaneous data from Nio ES6, Li Auto ONE, and XPeng G6. For Xiaomi Group's current valuation, the pre-order volume of Pengcheng models is a new catalyst. Tech stocks in HK have been under valuation pressure recently, and the auto business needs solid data to prove "this isn't PowerPoint car-making."

Third, operational financial leverage. Giving away a car table board worth 999 RMB upon pickup—note the word "worth," not "cost." Even calculating the cost of such a table board at 100 RMB, compared to the gross margin of the whole vehicle, it falls under "gifts" in marketing expenses. If pre-orders exceed expectations, this gift cost will eat into some gross margin, but the user reputation and social propagation gained have almost zero marginal cost. For heavy-asset businesses like autos, boosting initial sales to dilute fixed costs is far more important than scrimping on gift costs.

However, I must also say something harsh. What worries me most isn't the data, but the "refundable" clause. Financially, refundable intention deposits cannot be recognized as revenue; they can only be listed as liabilities. If the September launch pricing or configuration fails to meet expectations, mass refunds will cause short-term liquidity pressure—although 100 million isn't a huge sum for Xiaomi, it hits capital market confidence. Additionally, Nio tried a similar intention deposit model back then, which later proved to have lower-than-expected conversion rates, becoming a negative signal instead.

Another risk point: Production priority and the table board gift only happen after locking the order. This means Xiaomi Pengcheng is betting that users will lock orders early for the table board (strong perceived value). But locking the order means changing from refundable to non-refundable (at least increasing breach-of-contract costs). If users feel the product strength is insufficient, using the table board as bait might make the first batch of users feel "locked in," potentially triggering backlash in reputation. From a financial perspective, this actually shifts focus from the product itself to the gifts, requiring careful pacing control.

Finally, here is a financial judgment: The timing of 21:00 tonight, announced by Lei Jun at the tail end of the launch event rather than earlier, is intentional. The content and emotional buildup of the launch event are designed to maximize the conversion rate of that 1,000 RMB intention deposit. Based on estimates, if first-week pre-orders exceed 50,000, Xiaomi Pengcheng's valuation logic can switch from "concept" to "product validation phase," which is positive for Xiaomi Group's overall valuation recovery.

But saying that, can this 1,000 RMB really lock in users? Or are users just buying an option for a "possible future" for 1,000 RMB? Once prices and configurations are out in September, if the N90 starts above 250,000 RMB and the N70 above 200,000 RMB, will this 1,000 RMB become a "cool-down fee"?

Question: Do you think this 1,000 RMB intention deposit locks in the users, or locks in Xiaomi Pengcheng itself?

Original link: https://www.ithome.com/0/983/884.htm