Physix Frontier · News Briefing Card (Hacker News · Nov 6, 2026)

METR: Anthropic internal AI R&D sped up ~1.9x, range 1.1x to 2.9x

KEY FACTS

METR conducted an 11-week evaluation of Anthropic from August to October 2026, using internal data the company shared.
The evaluation shows Anthropic's capability index annual growth rate rose from about 15 points to about 29 points, roughly 1.9 times the original.
That multiplier depends on the choice of link function; under different assumptions results range from 1.1x to 2.9x.
METR subjectively estimates that about 80% of the speedup came from AI itself, but acknowledges the evidence is limited.
Anthropic withheld most of the key evidence and canceled a planned check midway through.

KEY DATA

11 weeksEvaluation duration

~15 pointsCapability index annual growth rate (before)

~29 pointsCapability index annual growth rate (after)

1.1x-2.9xSpeedup multiplier range

PHYSIX OBSERVATION

The 1.9x figure looks precise, but modeling assumptions stretch it from 1.1x to 2.9x, showing that measuring AI self-acceleration remains fragile. More alarming is that key evidence was withheld, leaving outsiders dependent on METR's judgment. The industry needs a more transparent evaluation mechanism, otherwise the speedup narrative easily degrades into PR rhetoric.

Source: Hacker News report